Ekstraklasa · Sat · 15:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 5, 2026 · how we work
Pogoń Szczecin are the favourites at 2.10, an implied probability of roughly 48%, giving them the clearest edge in the market.
Motor Lublin are priced at 3.57 (about 28%), placing them firmly in underdog territory for this trip.
The draw is available at 3.75, close to 27% implied, with our figures flagging a small positive edge of around 3.56% on that outcome.
The recommended Over 3.0 goals pick at 2.00 carries a negative value edge of -4.44%, so it reflects model preference rather than clear market value.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw (X) | 3.75 | +3.6% | 28% | 58 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
| Outcome | Best price | Bookmaker | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|
| Motor Lublin | 3.57 | Pinnacle | 28.0% |
| Pogoń Szczecin | 2.10 | Coolbet | 47.6% |
| Draw | 3.75 | Coolbet | 26.7% |
This Ekstraklasa fixture sees Pogoń Szczecin host Motor Lublin, and the market leaves little doubt about who it favours. Pogoń are priced around 2.10 with Coolbet, which translates to an implied probability of roughly 48%, marking them as clear home favourites. Motor Lublin are the outsiders at 3.57 with Pinnacle, or about 28% in probability terms, while the draw sits at 3.75 (also near 27%). The gap between the two sides is meaningful but not overwhelming, suggesting a contest the bookmakers see as tilted toward Pogoń rather than one-sided. Our model, meanwhile, looks past the match result and leans toward goals: the recommended angle is Over 3.0 goals at 2.00 with Pinnacle, carrying market-implied confidence around 48%. It is worth noting this pick shows a negative value edge of about -4.44%, so it is a preference rather than a flagged bargain.
Verdict: The model's recommended play is Over 3.0 goals at 2.00, a call on an open, high-scoring game. Be aware it shows a negative value edge of about -4.44%, so treat it as a lean, not a strong value spot. Stake responsibly and only within your bankroll.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Aug 18:30 | Wisła Kraków v Wisła Płock | 2.00 | 3.55 | 3.85 |
| 8 Aug 12:45 | Radomiak Radom v Górnik Zabrze | 2.98 | 3.55 | 2.38 |
| 8 Aug 18:15 | Korona Kielce v Legia Warszawa | 2.81 | 3.40 | 2.59 |
| 9 Aug 12:45 | Raków Częstochowa v Zagłębie Lubin | 1.61 | 3.80 | 5.15 |
| 9 Aug 15:30 | Lech Poznań v Piast Gliwice | 1.62 | 4.20 | 5.25 |
| 9 Aug 18:15 | Jagiellonia Białystok v Widzew Łódź | 2.38 | 3.40 | 3.10 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 3.0 goals at odds of 2.00, with a 48% confidence rating.
Pogoń Szczecin are the favourites, priced around 2.10 with Coolbet, which implies roughly a 48% chance. Motor Lublin are the outsiders at 3.57.
The draw is priced at 3.75 with Coolbet, an implied probability of about 27%. Our figures suggest a small positive edge of around 3.56% on this outcome.
The recommended Over 3.0 goals at 2.00 actually carries a negative value edge of about -4.44%, so it is a model preference rather than a clear value bet. The draw is the only outcome flagged with a positive edge in the data.
Pogoń Szczecin vs Motor Lublin takes place Sat · 15:30 in the Ekstraklasa.
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