Liga MX · Sun · 01:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 5, 2026 · how we work
Monterrey are strong favourites at 1.56, implying about a 64% chance, while FC Juárez trail at 5.75 for roughly 17%.
The draw at 4.4 sits around 23% implied probability, a realistic outcome given the sizeable price gap between the sides.
The recommended Under 2.5 goals bet at 2.33 has a market-implied confidence near 40%.
The value edge on that Under pick is -6.2%, meaning it is priced slightly against the bettor rather than offering positive value.
Form builds from completed fixtures in our dataset and fills out as the season progresses.
| Outcome | Best price | Bookmaker | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Juárez | 5.75 | Coolbet | 17.4% |
| Monterrey | 1.56 | 1xBet | 64.1% |
| Draw | 4.40 | Coolbet | 22.7% |
This Liga MX meeting sees Monterrey open as clear favourites at home to FC Juárez, with the best available price of 1.56 implying roughly a 64% chance of a home win. FC Juárez sit firmly on the other side of the market at 5.75, or about 17% in probability terms, while the draw is priced at 4.4, close to 23%. That spread paints Monterrey as the side the market trusts most, though the odds still leave room for an upset or a share of the points. Our model's attention is not on the match result but on the goal line: the recommended bet is Under 2.5 goals at 2.33, carrying a market-implied confidence of around 40%. It is worth noting the value edge on this pick is negative at -6.2%, so it reads more as a lean than a standout opportunity in the Monterrey versus FC Juárez fixture.
Verdict: The model leans toward Under 2.5 goals at 2.33, but with a negative value edge of -6.2% and only around 40% implied confidence, this is a modest lean rather than a strong call. Treat it cautiously and stake within your normal bankroll limits.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Aug 23:00 | Atlante FC v Toluca | 5.90 | 4.20 | 1.58 |
| 16 Aug 03:00 | Atlas v Tigres | 3.40 | 3.40 | 2.20 |
| 16 Aug 18:00 | Pumas v Querétaro | 1.64 | 4.20 | 5.05 |
| 16 Aug 23:00 | América v Atlético San Luis | 1.60 | 4.30 | 5.40 |
| 17 Aug 01:00 | Santos Laguna v Guadalajara | 5.25 | 4.20 | 1.62 |
| 17 Aug 03:00 | Tijuana v Cruz Azul | 3.10 | 3.50 | 2.25 |
| 18 Aug 01:00 | Necaxa v León | 2.30 | 3.60 | 3.10 |
| 18 Aug 03:00 | Pachuca v Puebla | 1.40 | 4.75 | 8.25 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.33, with a 40% confidence rating.
Monterrey are the favourites at 1.56, which implies roughly a 64% chance of a home win. FC Juárez are the outsiders at 5.75, around 17%.
The draw is available at 4.4 with Coolbet, implying approximately a 23% probability of the match ending level.
No value picks cleared our threshold here. The recommended Under 2.5 goals bet at 2.33 actually carries a negative value edge of -6.2%, so it is a lean rather than a positive-value play.
Monterrey vs FC Juárez takes place Sun · 01:00 in the Liga MX.
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