Allsvenskan · Sat · 15:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 5, 2026 · how we work
Mjällby AIF are the market favourites at 2.06 (about 49% implied), with IF Elfsborg outsiders at 3.85 (roughly 26%).
The draw is priced at 3.6, implying close to 28%, keeping a share of the outcome firmly in play.
The recommended Under 2.5 goals bet at 1.93 sits near a coin-flip in confidence terms, around 49%.
That Under 2.5 pick carries a negative value edge of -5.02%, meaning the price is not offering an advantage over the market.
| Outcome | Best price | Bookmaker | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|
| IF Elfsborg | 3.20 | Unibet (SE) | 31.3% |
| Mjällby AIF | 2.44 | Betfair | 41.0% |
| Draw | 3.45 | Betsson | 29.0% |
This Allsvenskan meeting between Mjällby AIF and IF Elfsborg sees the home side favoured by the market. Mjällby are priced around 2.06 with Betfair, which translates to an implied probability of roughly 49%, while IF Elfsborg sit as clear outsiders at 3.85 (Unibet SE), or about 26% in probability terms. The draw is quoted at 3.6, implying close to 28%. In short, the bookmakers lean toward a Mjällby win but stop short of making them a strong favourite, leaving plenty of room for both a stalemate and an Elfsborg upset. Our model's attention falls not on the result but on the goals market: it flags Under 2.5 goals at 1.93 with Pinnacle, carrying a market-implied confidence of around 49%. Note that this pick shows a negative value edge of -5.02%, so it is highlighted for interest rather than as a clear-cut edge over the closing price.
Verdict: The model's lean is Under 2.5 goals at 1.93, reflecting an expectation of a contained match. Confidence is only around 49% and the value edge is negative at -5.02%, so treat this as a marginal, informational pick rather than a standout spot. Stake responsibly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Aug 13:00 | Örgryte IS v AIK | 3.34 | 3.80 | 2.23 |
| 9 Aug 12:00 | Malmo FF v Degerfors IF | 1.55 | 5.10 | 8.00 |
| 9 Aug 12:00 | Hammarby IF v BK Hacken | 1.55 | 5.30 | 7.00 |
| 9 Aug 14:30 | Halmstads BK v GAIS | 5.40 | 4.10 | 1.71 |
| 9 Aug 14:30 | IFK Goteborg v Kalmar FF | 2.32 | 3.60 | 3.20 |
| 10 Aug 17:00 | IK Sirius v IF Brommapojkarna | 1.34 | 6.25 | 10.06 |
| 10 Aug 17:00 | Västerås SK v Djurgardens IF | 4.40 | 4.15 | 1.89 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.93, with a 49% confidence rating.
Mjällby AIF are favourites at 2.06 with Betfair, implying roughly 49%. IF Elfsborg are outsiders at 3.85, about 26% in probability terms.
The draw is priced at 3.6 with Unibet (SE), which implies a probability of close to 28%.
No value pick cleared our threshold here. The model's Under 2.5 goals suggestion at 1.93 actually shows a negative edge of -5.02%, so it is not offering an advantage against the market price.
Mjällby AIF vs IF Elfsborg takes place Sat · 15:30 in the Allsvenskan.
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