Ekstraklasa · Sun · 15:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 5, 2026 · how we work
Lech Poznań are the clear favourites at 1.62, an implied probability of about 62%, versus Piast Gliwice at 5.25, around 19%.
The draw is priced at 4.2, implying roughly a 24% chance of the points being shared.
The recommended Over 2.75 goals pick at 1.89 sits close to a coin-flip, with market-implied confidence of about 51%.
The value edge on the goals bet is negative at -4.51%, indicating the price offers no clear advantage over the market.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Piast Gliwice to win | 5.25 | +11.8% | 21% | 61 |
| Draw (X) | 4.20 | +4.8% | 25% | 58 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
| Outcome | Best price | Bookmaker | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lech Poznań | 1.62 | Nordic Bet | 61.7% |
| Piast Gliwice | 5.25 | Coolbet | 19.0% |
| Draw | 4.20 | Coolbet | 23.8% |
Lech Poznań welcome Piast Gliwice in this Ekstraklasa clash, and the market leaves little doubt about who it favours. Lech are priced at 1.62 with Nordic Bet, which translates to a market-implied probability of roughly 62% before margin. Piast, meanwhile, drift out to 5.25 at Coolbet, implying only about a 19% chance of an away win, while the draw sits at 4.2, worth around 24% in probability terms. Those numbers frame the hosts as clear favourites without pushing into short-odds territory. Rather than backing the match result, our model looks to the goals market: Over 2.75 goals at 1.89 with Pinnacle, carrying a market-implied confidence of around 51%. It is worth noting the value edge on that pick is negative at -4.51%, so it reads more as a lean than a strong edge over the market on Lech Poznań versus Piast Gliwice.
Verdict: The suggested play is Over 2.75 goals at 1.89, a near even-money lean rather than a standout edge. With a negative value figure of -4.51%, treat it as a modest position at best. Stake responsibly and only within a comfortable bankroll.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Aug 18:30 | Wisła Kraków v Wisła Płock | 2.00 | 3.55 | 3.85 |
| 8 Aug 12:45 | Radomiak Radom v Górnik Zabrze | 2.98 | 3.55 | 2.38 |
| 8 Aug 15:30 | Pogoń Szczecin v Motor Lublin | 2.10 | 3.75 | 3.57 |
| 8 Aug 18:15 | Korona Kielce v Legia Warszawa | 2.81 | 3.40 | 2.59 |
| 9 Aug 12:45 | Raków Częstochowa v Zagłębie Lubin | 1.61 | 3.80 | 5.15 |
| 9 Aug 18:15 | Jagiellonia Białystok v Widzew Łódź | 2.38 | 3.40 | 3.10 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.75 goals at odds of 1.89, with a 51% confidence rating.
Lech Poznań are favourites at 1.62, an implied probability of about 62%. Piast Gliwice are the outsiders at 5.25, roughly 19%.
The draw is priced at 4.2 with Coolbet, which implies around a 24% chance of the match ending level before bookmaker margin.
No value pick cleared our threshold here. The recommended Over 2.75 goals bet at 1.89 actually shows a negative edge of -4.51%, so it is a lean rather than a genuine value spot.
Lech Poznań vs Piast Gliwice takes place Sun · 15:30 in the Ekstraklasa.
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