Liga Profesional · Sun · 00:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 5, 2026 · how we work
Instituto de Córdoba are strong favourites at 1.8 (about 56% implied), well ahead of Gimnasia Mendoza at 5.2 (roughly 19%).
The draw is priced at 3.15, implying around a 32% chance and sitting comfortably between the two match-result outcomes.
The recommended Over 1.5 goals selection at 1.48 carries a market-implied confidence near 62%.
No value picks cleared our threshold, and the Over 1.5 bet actually shows a negative edge of -8.31% against the market.
| Outcome | Best price | Bookmaker | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gimnasia Mendoza | 7.00 | Unibet (SE) | 14.3% |
| Instituto de Córdoba | 1.61 | Codere (IT) | 62.1% |
| Draw | 3.55 | Unibet (SE) | 28.2% |
This Liga Profesional clash sees Instituto de Córdoba host Gimnasia Mendoza, and the market leaves little doubt about which side it favours. Instituto are priced at 1.8 with Marathon Bet, translating to a market-implied probability of roughly 56%, marking them as clear home favourites. Gimnasia Mendoza sit as sizeable outsiders at 5.2 with Codere, implying around a 19% chance, while the draw is quoted at 3.15, or about 32% in probability terms. Rather than picking a side, our model looks to the goals market, recommending Over 1.5 goals at 1.48 with Codere, which carries a market-implied confidence of about 62%. It is worth flagging that this selection shows a negative value edge of -8.31%, meaning the price offers no measurable edge over the market. Treat it as a preference on likely game shape rather than a value play in this fixture.
Verdict: The lean is Over 1.5 goals at 1.48, backed by roughly 62% implied confidence. Be aware it shows a negative value edge, so there is no pricing advantage here. It is a game-shape preference, not a value bet. Stake modestly and only within a bankroll you can afford to risk.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Aug 22:00 | Boca Juniors v Estudiantes | 2.16 | 3.10 | 4.34 |
| 6 Aug 00:15 | CA Tigre BA v Belgrano de Cordoba | 2.66 | 2.92 | 3.40 |
| 6 Aug 22:00 | Union Santa Fe v Lanus | 2.40 | 3.09 | 3.65 |
| 7 Aug 22:30 | Rosario Central v Aldosivi Mar del Plata | 1.55 | 3.90 | 8.60 |
| 8 Aug 00:45 | Independiente Rivadavia v Estudiantes de Río Cuarto | 1.56 | 4.02 | 7.80 |
| 8 Aug 17:45 | Atlético Tucuman v Sarmiento de Junin | 1.83 | 3.20 | 5.20 |
| 8 Aug 17:45 | Deportivo Riestra v Estudiantes | 3.40 | 2.72 | 2.62 |
| 8 Aug 20:00 | CA Tigre BA v River Plate | 3.42 | 3.05 | 2.38 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.54, with a 61% confidence rating.
Instituto de Córdoba are the favourites at 1.8, which implies around a 56% chance. Gimnasia Mendoza are the outsiders at 5.2, about 19% implied.
The draw is priced at 3.15 with Codere, equivalent to roughly a 32% implied probability.
No selections cleared our value threshold. The recommended Over 1.5 goals at 1.48 shows a negative edge of -8.31%, so it offers no measurable value over the market price.
Instituto de Córdoba vs Gimnasia Mendoza takes place Sun · 00:30 in the Liga Profesional.
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