Liga Profesional · Sat · 00:45 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 5, 2026 · how we work
Independiente Rivadavia are strong favourites at 1.63, an implied probability of about 61%, while Estudiantes de Río Cuarto at 6.31 sit near 16%.
The draw at 3.56 implies roughly 28%, a typical figure for a fixture with a dominant home side.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals pick at 2.4 has a market-implied confidence of only about 40%, so under-half likelihood by the market's read.
That same goals pick carries a negative value edge of -5.09%, indicating it prices slightly worse than fair value rather than offering an edge.
| Outcome | Best price | Bookmaker | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|
| Estudiantes de Río Cuarto | 7.80 | Betfair | 12.8% |
| Independiente Rivadavia | 1.56 | 1xBet | 64.1% |
| Draw | 4.02 | BetOnline.ag | 24.9% |
This Liga Profesional meeting sees Independiente Rivadavia hosting Estudiantes de Río Cuarto, and the market leaves little doubt about who it favours. Independiente Rivadavia are priced at 1.63, which translates to an implied probability of roughly 61%, marking them as clear favourites. Estudiantes de Río Cuarto sit out at 6.31, implying only around 16% - the market treats them very much as underdogs here. The draw is quoted at 3.56, or about 28% in probability terms, a fairly standard reading for a match with a strong home favourite. Our model does not focus on the match result but instead points to the goals market: Over 2.5 goals at 2.4, carrying a market-implied confidence of about 40%. Notably, this pick shows a negative value edge of -5.09%, meaning it screens as slightly under fair value rather than a clear advantage over the market price.
Verdict: The model leans to Over 2.5 goals at 2.4, but with roughly 40% implied confidence and a negative value edge of -5.09%, this is a speculative call rather than a strong one. Treat it as a modest-stake option and stake only what you can comfortably afford to lose.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Aug 22:00 | Boca Juniors v Estudiantes | 2.16 | 3.10 | 4.34 |
| 6 Aug 00:15 | CA Tigre BA v Belgrano de Cordoba | 2.66 | 2.92 | 3.40 |
| 6 Aug 22:00 | Union Santa Fe v Lanus | 2.40 | 3.09 | 3.65 |
| 7 Aug 22:30 | Rosario Central v Aldosivi Mar del Plata | 1.55 | 3.90 | 8.60 |
| 8 Aug 17:45 | Atlético Tucuman v Sarmiento de Junin | 1.83 | 3.20 | 5.20 |
| 8 Aug 17:45 | Deportivo Riestra v Estudiantes | 3.40 | 2.72 | 2.62 |
| 8 Aug 20:00 | CA Tigre BA v River Plate | 3.42 | 3.05 | 2.38 |
| 8 Aug 22:15 | Boca Juniors v Velez Sarsfield BA | 1.82 | 3.25 | 5.29 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.38, with a 40% confidence rating.
Independiente Rivadavia are the clear favourites at 1.63, an implied probability of around 61%. Estudiantes de Río Cuarto are the outsiders at 6.31, about 16%.
The draw is priced at 3.56 with 1xBet, which implies a probability of roughly 28%.
The model's Over 2.5 goals pick at 2.4 shows a negative value edge of -5.09%, so it screens as slightly under fair value rather than a clear value bet.
Independiente Rivadavia vs Estudiantes de Río Cuarto takes place Sat · 00:45 in the Liga Profesional.
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