Brasileirão · Sat · 19:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 5, 2026 · how we work
Grêmio are the market favourites at 2.43 (around 41% implied), but the margin over Sao Paulo at 3.08 (around 32%) is modest.
The draw is priced at 3.27, roughly 31% implied, reflecting a tightly balanced three-way market.
The recommended Under 2.5 goals selection at 1.73 carries about 55% implied confidence, suggesting the model expects a lower-scoring game.
No result-market picks cleared the value threshold, and the Under 2.5 lean shows a negative edge of -4.14%, so this is not a strong-value spot.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.9% | 7.75 |
| 1-0 | 12.9% | 7.78 |
| 0-1 | 9.6% | 10.41 |
| 0-0 | 9.6% | 10.44 |
| 2-1 | 8.7% | 11.55 |
| 2-0 | 8.6% | 11.59 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.34 and 1.00. These six scorelines cover 62% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Grêmio's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Outcome | Best price | Bookmaker | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grêmio | 2.45 | Pinnacle | 40.8% |
| Sao Paulo | 3.10 | Coolbet | 32.3% |
| Draw | 3.30 | Coolbet | 30.3% |
Grêmio host Sao Paulo in this Brasileirão fixture, and the market leans toward the home side without making them heavy favourites. Grêmio are priced at 2.43, which translates to an implied probability of roughly 41%, while Sao Paulo sit at 3.08, around 32%. The draw is available at 3.27, or about 31% in implied terms, underlining how competitive the bookmakers expect this to be. With no single outcome priced above the mid-40s, this reads as a genuinely open contest rather than a mismatch. Our model's attention is on the goals market rather than the result, where the recommended angle is Under 2.5 goals at 1.73, carrying a market-implied confidence of about 55%. That said, the calculated value edge on this selection is slightly negative at -4.14%, so it is offered as a lean rather than a standout price in this Grêmio versus Sao Paulo clash.
Verdict: The model's pick is Under 2.5 goals at 1.73, backed by roughly 55% implied confidence but a slightly negative value edge of -4.14%. It is a modest lean toward a lower-scoring match rather than a high-conviction bet, so size any stake carefully and treat the price as fair at best.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Aug 21:30 | Remo v Atletico Mineiro | 3.08 | 3.40 | 2.48 |
| 8 Aug 23:30 | Coritiba v Chapecoense | 1.66 | 4.00 | 5.60 |
| 9 Aug 00:00 | Botafogo v Fluminense | 2.67 | 3.40 | 2.93 |
| 9 Aug 14:00 | Cruzeiro v Mirassol | 1.72 | 3.85 | 5.32 |
| 9 Aug 19:00 | Palmeiras v Internacional | 1.64 | 3.90 | 6.20 |
| 9 Aug 19:00 | Bahia v Vasco da Gama | 1.94 | 3.76 | 4.30 |
| 9 Aug 21:30 | Santos v Atletico Paranaense | 2.22 | 3.40 | 3.61 |
| 9 Aug 21:30 | Bragantino-SP v Corinthians | 2.15 | 3.40 | 3.70 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 21 | 14 | 5 | 2 | +22 | 47 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 20 | 11 | 6 | 3 | +19 | 39 |
| 3 | Paranaense | 21 | 11 | 4 | 6 | +9 | 37 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 21 | 9 | 7 | 5 | +5 | 34 |
| 5 | Bahia | 21 | 8 | 8 | 5 | +4 | 32 |
| 6 | Bragantino | 20 | 9 | 4 | 7 | +6 | 31 |
| 7 | Cruzeiro | 21 | 8 | 6 | 7 | -3 | 30 |
| 8 | Botafogo | 20 | 8 | 5 | 7 | +2 | 29 |
| 9 | Corinthians | 21 | 7 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 29 |
| 10 | Mineiro | 20 | 8 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 28 |
| 11 | Coritiba | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | -3 | 27 |
| 12 | São Paulo | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | +2 | 26 |
| 13 | Vitória | 21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | -9 | 26 |
| 14 | Mirassol | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 23 |
| 15 | Santos | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | -4 | 22 |
| 16 | Internacional | 21 | 5 | 7 | 9 | -4 | 22 |
| 17 | Grêmio | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | -4 | 22 |
| 18 | Vasco da Gama | 20 | 5 | 6 | 9 | -8 | 21 |
| 19 | Clube do Remo | 21 | 5 | 6 | 10 | -10 | 21 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | -22 | 10 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.78, with a 54% confidence rating.
Grêmio are the market favourites at 2.43, which implies about a 41% chance. Sao Paulo are priced at 3.08 (around 32%), so the gap is fairly narrow.
The draw is available at 3.27 with 1xBet, an implied probability of roughly 31%, which points to a closely matched fixture.
No selection cleared our value threshold in the result market. The recommended Under 2.5 goals at 1.73 actually shows a negative edge of -4.14%, so it is a lean based on around 55% confidence rather than a value play.
Grêmio vs Sao Paulo takes place Sat · 19:00 in the Brasileirão.
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