2. Bundesliga · Sun · 11:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 5, 2026 · how we work
St. Pauli at 1.87 imply roughly a 53% chance of victory, making them the market's favourite over Fürth.
Fürth at 4.2 (about 24% implied) and the draw at 4.0 (about 25%) are priced almost level, showing the market sees a Fürth win and a stalemate as similarly likely.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.62 carries a 59% implied confidence but a negative value edge of -4.95%, so it is not flagged as a value play.
No value picks cleared the threshold against market consensus for this fixture.
| Outcome | Best price | Bookmaker | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC St. Pauli | 1.87 | Coolbet | 53.5% |
| Greuther Fürth | 4.00 | Tipico | 25.0% |
| Draw | 3.95 | Winamax (DE) | 25.3% |
FC St. Pauli host Greuther Fürth in this 2. Bundesliga fixture, and the market leaves little doubt about which way it leans. St. Pauli are priced at 1.87 with Coolbet, which translates to an implied probability of roughly 53%, marking them as clear home favourites. Fürth are the outsiders at 4.2 (about 24% implied), while the draw sits at 4.0, or around 25%. That spread points to a contest the bookmakers expect St. Pauli to control without treating the result as a formality. Our model's attention, however, is on the goals market rather than the winner. The recommended angle is Over 2.5 goals at 1.62 with 1xBet, carrying a market-implied confidence of about 59%. Note the value edge here is negative at -4.95%, meaning the price offers no statistical edge over the market's own assessment. It is a lean, not a value flag, so weigh it accordingly.
Verdict: The lean is Over 2.5 goals at 1.62, backed by a 59% model confidence. Be aware the value edge is negative at -4.95%, meaning the odds do not beat the market's own read. Treat it as a modest preference rather than a value bet, and stake within your normal limits.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Aug 18:30 | VfL Bochum v Hertha Berlin | 2.48 | 3.75 | 3.05 |
| 8 Aug 11:00 | 1. FC Magdeburg v Eintracht Braunschweig | 1.81 | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| 8 Aug 11:00 | 1. FC Heidenheim v VfL Osnabrück | 1.64 | 4.30 | 5.60 |
| 8 Aug 11:00 | Karlsruher SC v Arminia Bielefeld | 2.95 | 3.95 | 2.38 |
| 8 Aug 11:00 | SV Darmstadt 98 v Holstein Kiel | 2.18 | 3.85 | 3.20 |
| 8 Aug 18:30 | VfL Wolfsburg v 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 1.63 | 4.40 | 5.25 |
| 9 Aug 11:30 | 1. FC Nürnberg v Dynamo Dresden | 2.11 | 3.85 | 3.30 |
| 9 Aug 11:30 | FC Energie Cottbus v Hannover 96 | 3.20 | 3.85 | 2.16 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.62, with a 58% confidence rating.
FC St. Pauli are the favourites at 1.87, an implied probability of about 53%. Greuther Fürth are the outsiders at 4.2, around 24%.
The draw is priced at 4.0 with Tipico, which implies roughly a 25% chance. That is almost identical to Fürth's win price, so the market rates the two similarly.
No value picks cleared our threshold for this fixture. The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.62 actually shows a negative edge of -4.95%, so it is a lean rather than a value selection.
FC St. Pauli vs Greuther Fürth takes place Sun · 11:30 in the 2. Bundesliga.
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