Estoril vs Famalicão Prediction & Odds

Our prediction

⚽ Primeira Liga 🕒 Fri · 19:15

Estoril

Famalicão

Model lean

Over 2.5 goals

Odds

1.93

ⓘ Model lean, not an official pick — this fixture didn't clear our value threshold, so it isn't counted in the record

ConfidenceValue · 50%

AI Value edge -4% · best price at LeoVegas (SE)

Bet at LeoVegas (SE)

Key factors behind our tip

Famalicão are the favourites at 2.32, implying about a 43% chance, while Estoril at 3.49 imply roughly 29%.

The draw is priced at 3.5, giving it a similar implied probability to an Estoril win at around 29%.

The recommended Over 2.5 goals line at 1.93 carries a market-implied confidence near 50%, essentially a coin flip.

The value edge on the Over is negative at -4.26%, so the price offers no clear market-beating margin.

Most likely scorelines

Both teams to score: 52%

Score	Model chance	Fair odds
1-1	12.7%	7.88
0-1	10.3%	9.71
1-0	9.7%	10.34
1-2	8.3%	12.00
0-0	7.8%	12.74
2-1	7.8%	12.79

From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.23 and 1.31. These six scorelines cover 57% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.

Team form

EST Estoril LDDLL

16 May 26 vs SL Benfica 1-3

10 May 26 @ Alverca 1-1

3 May 26 @ Braga 1-1

26 Apr 26 vs Famalicão 0-1

20 Apr 26 @ Moreirense 0-1

FAM Famalicão WDDWD

16 May 26 vs Alverca 1-0

11 May 26 @ Amadora 0-0

2 May 26 vs SL Benfica 2-2

26 Apr 26 @ Estoril Praia 1-0

19 Apr 26 @ Braga 2-2

Head-to-head: Estoril v Famalicão

Full H2H history →

L 26 Apr 26

Estoril Praia 0-1 FamalicãoPrimeira Liga

L 14 Dec 25

Famalicão 4-0 Estoril PraiaPrimeira Liga

W/D/L shown from Estoril's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.

Best odds across bookmakers

Outcome	Best price	Bookmaker	Implied
Estoril	3.25	LeoVegas (SE)	30.8%
Famalicão	2.34	Pinnacle	42.7%
Draw	3.40	Coolbet	29.4%

Estoril vs Famalicão: match preview

This Primeira Liga meeting sends Estoril against Famalicão, and the market clearly leans toward the visitors. Famalicão are priced at 2.32 with Betsson, which translates to roughly a 43% implied chance of taking the three points. Estoril, at 3.49 with Pinnacle, sit closer to 29% in probability terms, while the draw is quoted at 3.5 (Coolbet), also around 29%. That spread points to a contest where Famalicão are favoured but far from dominant, with the home side and a stalemate both realistic outcomes. Our model does not focus on the match result here; instead it flags Over 2.5 goals at 1.93 with Pinnacle, carrying a market-implied confidence of about 50%. Notably, the value edge on that line comes out at -4.26%, meaning the price sits slightly below fair value on our numbers. It is a close call rather than a standout, so treat it accordingly.

Verdict: The model points to Over 2.5 goals at 1.93, but with a negative value edge of -4.26% and around 50% implied confidence, this is a marginal call rather than a strong lean. If you back it, stake modestly and stay within your bankroll limits, as the outcome remains genuinely uncertain.

Upcoming Primeira Liga fixtures

All Primeira Liga tips →

Kick-off (UTC)	Match	1	X	2
8 Aug 14:30	CS Maritimo v Casa Pia	2.48	3.45	2.95
8 Aug 17:00	Vitória SC v Arouca	1.90	3.85	4.30
8 Aug 19:30	CF Estrela v Sporting Lisbon	14.50	6.60	1.24
9 Aug 17:00	FC Porto v Alverca	1.21	7.80	16.50
9 Aug 19:30	Benfica v Académico de Viseu	1.13	10.00	26.00
9 Aug 19:30	Gil Vicente v Rio Ave FC	2.01	3.57	4.20
9 Aug 19:30	Moreirense FC v Braga	5.20	3.75	1.73
10 Aug 19:15	Santa Clara v Nacional	1.96	3.50	4.20

Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.

Primeira Liga standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Porto	33	27	4	2	+47	85
2	Sporting CP	32	25	5	2	+65	80
3	SL Benfica	33	22	11	0	+46	77
4	Braga	32	15	11	6	+28	56
5	Famalicão	34	15	11	8	+13	56
6	Gil Vicente	33	12	11	10	+8	47
7	Moreirense	33	12	7	14	-9	43
8	Arouca	33	12	6	15	-16	42
9	Estoril Praia	34	10	9	15	-3	39
10	Vitória SC	33	11	6	16	-14	39
11	Alverca	33	9	9	15	-18	36
12	Rio Ave	33	8	12	13	-20	36
13	Santa Clara	33	8	9	16	-10	33
14	CD Nacional	33	8	7	18	-10	31
15	Amadora	33	6	12	15	-17	30
16	Casa Pia	32	6	12	14	-24	30
17	Tondela	32	6	9	17	-26	27
18	AVS	33	3	11	19	-40	20

Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.

Match FAQ

What is the prediction for Estoril vs Famalicão?+

Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.93, with a 50% confidence rating.

Who is the favourite for Estoril vs Famalicão?+

Famalicão are the market favourites at 2.32 with Betsson, implying about a 43% chance. Estoril are the outsiders at 3.49, implying roughly 29%.

What are the draw odds for this match?+

The draw is priced at 3.5 with Coolbet, which works out to an implied probability of around 29%, close to Estoril's win chance.

Is there any betting value in this fixture?+

No pick cleared our value threshold. The recommended Over 2.5 goals at 1.93 actually shows a negative edge of -4.26%, so there is no clear value against the market here.

When does the match kick off?+

Estoril vs Famalicão takes place Fri · 19:15 in the Primeira Liga.

Estoril vs Famalicão prediction