Brasileirão · Sat · 19:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 5, 2026 · how we work
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 13.1% | 7.61 |
| 1-1 | 12.5% | 7.97 |
| 2-0 | 9.5% | 10.57 |
| 0-0 | 9.1% | 10.95 |
| 2-1 | 9.0% | 11.07 |
| 0-1 | 8.7% | 11.48 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.44 and 0.95. These six scorelines cover 62% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Atletico Mineiro's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Outcome | Best price | Bookmaker | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Mineiro | 1.81 | 1xBet | 55.2% |
| Grêmio | 4.83 | 1xBet | 20.7% |
| Draw | 3.75 | Coolbet | 26.7% |
This Brasileirão clash sends Atletico Mineiro out as clear home favourites against Grêmio, and the pricing tells the story. Atletico Mineiro sit at 1.82, which translates to a market-implied probability of roughly 55%, while Grêmio drift out to 4.78, or about 21%. The draw is quoted at 3.75, worth around 27% in implied terms. That spread points to a market that leans firmly towards the hosts without ruling out a stalemate. Rather than backing the match result, our model turns to the goals market, recommending Over 2.5 goals at 2.03. That price carries a market-implied confidence of about 47%, though the value edge comes in slightly negative at -4.04%, meaning the odds sit just below what our model considers fair. It is a lean rather than a strong signal, and one worth weighing carefully before committing any stake to this fixture.
Verdict: placeholder
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Aug 19:00 | Grêmio v Sao Paulo | 2.45 | 3.30 | 3.10 |
| 8 Aug 21:30 | Remo v Atletico Mineiro | 3.08 | 3.40 | 2.48 |
| 8 Aug 23:30 | Coritiba v Chapecoense | 1.66 | 4.00 | 5.60 |
| 9 Aug 00:00 | Botafogo v Fluminense | 2.67 | 3.40 | 2.93 |
| 9 Aug 14:00 | Cruzeiro v Mirassol | 1.72 | 3.85 | 5.32 |
| 9 Aug 19:00 | Palmeiras v Internacional | 1.64 | 3.90 | 6.20 |
| 9 Aug 19:00 | Bahia v Vasco da Gama | 1.94 | 3.76 | 4.30 |
| 9 Aug 21:30 | Santos v Atletico Paranaense | 2.22 | 3.40 | 3.61 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 21 | 14 | 5 | 2 | +22 | 47 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 20 | 11 | 6 | 3 | +19 | 39 |
| 3 | Paranaense | 21 | 11 | 4 | 6 | +9 | 37 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 21 | 9 | 7 | 5 | +5 | 34 |
| 5 | Bahia | 21 | 8 | 8 | 5 | +4 | 32 |
| 6 | Bragantino | 20 | 9 | 4 | 7 | +6 | 31 |
| 7 | Cruzeiro | 21 | 8 | 6 | 7 | -3 | 30 |
| 8 | Botafogo | 20 | 8 | 5 | 7 | +2 | 29 |
| 9 | Corinthians | 21 | 7 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 29 |
| 10 | Mineiro | 20 | 8 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 28 |
| 11 | Coritiba | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | -3 | 27 |
| 12 | São Paulo | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | +2 | 26 |
| 13 | Vitória | 21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | -9 | 26 |
| 14 | Mirassol | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 23 |
| 15 | Santos | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | -4 | 22 |
| 16 | Internacional | 21 | 5 | 7 | 9 | -4 | 22 |
| 17 | Grêmio | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | -4 | 22 |
| 18 | Vasco da Gama | 20 | 5 | 6 | 9 | -8 | 21 |
| 19 | Clube do Remo | 21 | 5 | 6 | 10 | -10 | 21 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | -22 | 10 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.03, with a 47% confidence rating.
Atletico Mineiro vs Grêmio takes place Sat · 19:30 in the Brasileirão.
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