Liga Profesional · Sat · 17:45 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 5, 2026 · how we work
Atlético Tucuman are firm favourites at 1.82 (about 55% implied), well clear of Sarmiento at 5.08 (around 20%).
The draw is priced at 3.25, implying roughly a 31% chance and reflecting a competitive rather than one-sided expectation.
Our model rates Sarmiento's fair probability at 28% versus a market implying less, producing the largest value edge at 43.2%.
The recommended Under 1.5 goals at 2.42 carries a negative value edge of -5.15%, so it is a model-preferred angle rather than a pricing bargain.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarmiento de Junin to win | 5.20 | +11.5% | 21% | 61 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
| Outcome | Best price | Bookmaker | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlético Tucuman | 1.83 | 1xBet | 54.6% |
| Sarmiento de Junin | 5.20 | Codere (IT) | 19.2% |
| Draw | 3.20 | Codere (IT) | 31.3% |
Atlético Tucuman host Sarmiento de Junin in this Liga Profesional fixture, and the market leaves little doubt about who it favours. Atlético are priced at 1.82, which translates to an implied probability of roughly 55%, marking them as clear home favourites. Sarmiento sit as sizeable outsiders at 5.08, implying only around 20% before the margin is stripped out, while the draw at 3.25 reflects a chance near 31%. So the bookmakers see a controlled home advantage rather than a certainty. Our model, however, steers away from a straight result call and lands on Under 1.5 goals at 2.42, with market-implied confidence of about 39%. Notably the value flags fall on the away side and the draw, where our fair probabilities exceed the market's, suggesting the underdog and stalemate outcomes may be underestimated. Read the numbers below before staking, and keep any bet within a sensible bankroll.
Verdict: The model's pick is Under 1.5 goals at 2.42, backing a low-scoring contest with market-implied confidence near 39%. Its value edge is negative at -5.15%, so treat this as a lean rather than a strong price. The standout value figures actually sit with Sarmiento and the draw.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Aug 22:00 | Boca Juniors v Estudiantes | 2.16 | 3.10 | 4.34 |
| 6 Aug 00:15 | CA Tigre BA v Belgrano de Cordoba | 2.66 | 2.92 | 3.40 |
| 6 Aug 22:00 | Union Santa Fe v Lanus | 2.40 | 3.09 | 3.65 |
| 7 Aug 22:30 | Rosario Central v Aldosivi Mar del Plata | 1.55 | 3.90 | 8.60 |
| 8 Aug 00:45 | Independiente Rivadavia v Estudiantes de Río Cuarto | 1.56 | 4.02 | 7.80 |
| 8 Aug 17:45 | Deportivo Riestra v Estudiantes | 3.40 | 2.72 | 2.62 |
| 8 Aug 20:00 | CA Tigre BA v River Plate | 3.42 | 3.05 | 2.38 |
| 8 Aug 22:15 | Boca Juniors v Velez Sarsfield BA | 1.82 | 3.25 | 5.29 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 1.5 goals at odds of 1.60, with a 60% confidence rating.
Atlético Tucuman are the favourites at 1.82, an implied probability of about 55%. Sarmiento de Junin are outsiders at 5.08, roughly 20%.
The draw is priced at 3.25 with 1xBet, which implies a chance of around 31%.
According to our model, yes on the outsiders: Sarmiento carries a 43.2% edge at 5.08 and the draw an 11.49% edge at 3.25. The recommended Under 1.5 goals pick, by contrast, shows a negative edge of -5.15%.
Atlético Tucuman vs Sarmiento de Junin takes place Sat · 17:45 in the Liga Profesional.
English 
Español 
Português 
Deutsch 
Français