La Liga 2 · Mon · 19:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 5, 2026 · how we work
Almería are heavy favourites at 1.31, an implied probability near 76%, dwarfing CD Eldense's 10.9 (about 9%).
The draw is priced at 5.37, implying roughly 19%, but our model's fair probability of 22% points to a value edge of about 18%.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.75 sits at around 55% implied confidence, though it shows a slightly negative value edge of -3.73%.
The large price gap between the two teams reflects a clear market expectation rather than a tightly contested contest.
| Outcome | Best price | Bookmaker | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|
| Almería | 1.31 | 1xBet | 76.3% |
| CD Eldense | 12.50 | Betfair | 8.0% |
| Draw | 5.37 | 1xBet | 18.6% |
This La Liga 2 clash sees Almería hosting CD Eldense, and the market leaves little doubt about which side it favours. Almería are priced at 1.31, which translates to a market-implied probability of roughly 76%, marking them as strong home favourites. CD Eldense, by contrast, sit out at 10.9 (around 9% implied), while the draw is offered at 5.37, worth about 19% in the market's view. That is a wide gap between the two teams' prices. Our model does not chase the favourite outright; instead the recommended bet is Over 2.5 goals at 1.75 with William Hill, carrying a market-implied confidence of around 55%. It is worth flagging that this selection currently shows a negative value edge of -3.73%, meaning the price is slightly shorter than our fair estimate. The most notable value signal elsewhere sits on the draw, which our model rates higher than its long odds suggest.
Verdict: The featured pick is Over 2.5 goals at 1.75, backed by about 55% model confidence. Be aware it carries a small negative value edge, so the price is marginally tight. Treat it as a moderate-risk goals-based play and stake within a sensible bankroll rather than overcommitting.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Aug 18:30 | Real Sociedad B v CD Castellón | 4.22 | 4.17 | 1.81 |
| 15 Aug 15:00 | Andorra CF v AD Ceuta FC | 1.62 | 4.15 | 5.15 |
| 15 Aug 17:00 | Oviedo v Granada CF | 1.76 | 3.83 | 4.73 |
| 15 Aug 17:00 | Cádiz CF v Celta Vigo | 2.06 | 3.40 | 3.70 |
| 15 Aug 19:30 | Mallorca v Real Valladolid CF | 1.73 | 3.66 | 5.25 |
| 16 Aug 15:00 | SD Eibar v Tenerife | 1.82 | 3.58 | 4.90 |
| 16 Aug 17:00 | Girona FC v Leganés | 1.65 | 3.88 | 5.65 |
| 16 Aug 17:00 | Burgos CF v Córdoba | 2.34 | 3.33 | 3.23 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.75, with a 55% confidence rating.
Almería are clear favourites at 1.31, an implied probability of about 76%. CD Eldense are long outsiders at 10.9, roughly 9%.
The draw is priced at 5.37 with 1xBet, implying around 19%. Our model rates its fair probability at 22%, which flags a value edge of about 18%.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.75 actually shows a slightly negative edge of -3.73%. The stronger value signal is on the draw, where our fair probability exceeds the market price.
Almería vs CD Eldense takes place Mon · 19:30 in the La Liga 2.
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