2. Bundesliga · Sun · 11:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 5, 2026 · how we work
Nürnberg are the market favourites at 2.1, implying roughly a 48% win probability against Dresden's 30%.
The draw is priced at 3.85, around a 26% implied chance, reflecting a fairly open contest.
The Under 2.5 goals pick at 2.21 carries a negative value edge of about -5.53%, so the model sees no genuine overlay.
The gap between the two sides' win prices is moderate rather than wide, suggesting the market rates Dresden as a live outsider.
| Outcome | Best price | Bookmaker | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Nürnberg | 2.11 | Codere (IT) | 47.4% |
| Dynamo Dresden | 3.30 | Tipico | 30.3% |
| Draw | 3.85 | Coolbet | 26.0% |
This 2. Bundesliga clash sees 1. FC Nürnberg host Dynamo Dresden, with the bookmakers leaning towards the home side. At a best price of 2.1, Nürnberg are priced as favourites, implying roughly a 48% chance of victory. Dresden, at 3.3, sit around 30% in implied terms, while the draw is available at 3.85, translating to about 26%. Those numbers point to a game the market considers tilted towards Nürnberg but far from settled, with the visitors given a realistic route to a result. Our model's attention falls not on the match winner but on the goals market: Under 2.5 goals at 2.21. However, the market-implied confidence of 43% sits below the price, producing a negative value edge of around -5.53%, meaning no clear edge emerges here. Treat this preview as a read on the prices rather than a strong steer either way, and stake within your means.
Verdict: The model flags Under 2.5 goals at 2.21, but with implied confidence of just 43% and a negative value edge of -5.53%, there is no clear advantage on offer. This is a low-conviction spot; if you play it, keep stakes modest and accept the genuine uncertainty.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Aug 18:30 | VfL Bochum v Hertha Berlin | 2.48 | 3.75 | 3.05 |
| 8 Aug 11:00 | 1. FC Magdeburg v Eintracht Braunschweig | 1.81 | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| 8 Aug 11:00 | 1. FC Heidenheim v VfL Osnabrück | 1.64 | 4.30 | 5.60 |
| 8 Aug 11:00 | Karlsruher SC v Arminia Bielefeld | 2.95 | 3.95 | 2.38 |
| 8 Aug 11:00 | SV Darmstadt 98 v Holstein Kiel | 2.18 | 3.85 | 3.20 |
| 8 Aug 18:30 | VfL Wolfsburg v 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 1.63 | 4.40 | 5.25 |
| 9 Aug 11:30 | FC St. Pauli v Greuther Fürth | 1.87 | 3.95 | 4.00 |
| 9 Aug 11:30 | FC Energie Cottbus v Hannover 96 | 3.20 | 3.85 | 2.16 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.21, with a 43% confidence rating.
1. FC Nürnberg are the favourites at a best price of 2.1, which implies roughly a 48% chance. Dynamo Dresden are priced at 3.3, around 30% implied.
The draw is available at 3.85 with Coolbet, implying approximately a 26% chance of the match ending level.
Based on the data, no. The recommended Under 2.5 goals at 2.21 shows a negative value edge of about -5.53% and market-implied confidence of only 43%, so no pick clears the value threshold.
1. FC Nürnberg vs Dynamo Dresden takes place Sun · 11:30 in the 2. Bundesliga.
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